Dragon Math: Who Has the Advantage Between the Blacks and the Greens in ‘House of the Dragon’?

Season 2 of House of the Dragon is almost here, and that means: dragon war. As Bartimos Celtigar says at the black council in last season’s finale: “Talk of men is moot. Your cause owns a power that has not been seen in this world since the days of old Valyria: dragons!” And he’s not wrong—while soldiers and ships will be important, dragons will be even more so.

So the upcoming civil war between the blacks and the greens raises a question: Who has the edge when it comes to dragon power? Welcome to Dragon Math. Let’s break down the standing of all 19 dragons in Westeros and what the balance of power will look like in the coming Dance of the Dragons:

The Blacks

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Syrax

Age: Likely around the same age as Rhaenyra—early 30s
Battle experience: None
Current rider: Rhaenyra Targaryen
Past riders: None
Current whereabouts: Dragonstone

From the books: “Ser Vaemond Velaryon protested that the inheritance by rights should pass to him … on the grounds that Rhaenyra’s sons were bastards sired by Harwin Strong. The princess was not slow in answering this charge. She dispatched Prince Daemon to seize Ser Vaemond, had his head removed, and fed his carcass to her dragon, Syrax.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating (out of five):

Pro comparison: Yellow Saphira (Inheritance Cycle)

Rhaenyra named Syrax herself—after a Valyrian goddess—which heavily implies that Syrax hatched while Rhaenyra was a small child, likely from an egg placed in Rhaenyra’s cradle. That would make Syrax roughly 30 years old and therefore of a good size for combat. In Fire & Blood, dragons are usually large enough to be ridden once they enter their tweenage years.

But like Rhaenyra, Syrax grew up during something of a Targaryen golden age, a time of peace and plenty. Fire & Blood describes Syrax as “accustomed to chains” and “well-fed,” and the book reveals that she “had not hunted for years.” Hardly intimidating stuff. Despite all this, Syrax is also described as “huge and formidable,” so she shouldn’t be entirely written off.

Caraxes

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Also known as: The Blood Wyrm
Age: At least in his 60s, more likely 70s-80s
Battle experience: As extensive as it gets for any post-Conquest dragon
Current rider: Daemon Targaryen
Past riders: Aemon Targaryen
Current whereabouts: Dragonstone

From the books: “Caraxes was a fearsome beast, savage and cunning and battle-tested.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Long Charizard (Pokémon)

After Vhagar, Caraxes is the most battle-tested dragon in the realm. We saw Caraxes in action in Season 1, when Daemon took him to the Stepstones to lay waste to Craghas Crabfeeder. But before Daemon, Caraxes’s rider was Aemon Targaryen—Daemon’s uncle who died before the events of House of the Dragon. Even when he was young, Caraxes was known to be one of the Targaryens’ fiercest dragons, and Aemon used him twice in battle—once in the Fourth Dornish War in 83 AC and a second time to quell an invasion of Tarth in 92 AC.

Caraxes is the second-most intimidating dragon in this war after Vhagar. He has that iconic, high-pitched squeal that appears to be unique to him, and it should strike fear into the hearts of anyone who hears it.

Meleys

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Also known as: The Red Queen
Age: At least 50s, more likely north of 70s
Battle experience: None
Current rider: Rhaenys Targaryen
Past riders: Alyssa Targaryen
Current whereabouts: Dragonstone

From the books: “Rhaenys, at six-and-ten, was a fearless young beauty, and more than a match for her mariner. A dragonrider since the age of thirteen, she insisted upon arriving for the wedding on Meleys, the Red Queen, the magnificent scarlet she-dragon that had once borne her aunt Alyssa. ‘We can go back to the ends of the earth together,’ she promised Ser Corlys. ‘But I’ll get there first, as I’ll be flying.’” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: The Hungarian Horntail (Harry Potter)

Speed, speed, speed. If there’s one thing to remember about Meleys, it’s that she is the fastest dragon in the realm, easily capable of outpacing Caraxes, Vhagar, and any other dragon in Westeros. And as one of the realm’s older dragons, she’s also larger than many of the other mounts present for this civil war.

There is one catch, however: Meleys has never seen combat. And worse, she’s past her prime; as Fire & Blood tells us, by the time of the Dance, the Red Queen “had grown lazy, but remained fearsome when roused.” How fearsome? We’ll have to wait for battle to find out.

Vermax

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Age: No older than Jacaerys Velaryon, who is 16
Battle experience: None
Current rider: Jacaerys Velaryon
Past riders: None
Current whereabouts: The Vale

From the books: “By royal decree, each of the Velaryon boys was presented with a dragon’s egg whilst in the cradle. Those who doubted the paternity of Rhaenyra’s sons whispered that the eggs would never hatch, but the birth in turn of three young dragons gave the lie to their words. The hatchlings were named Vermax, Arrax, and Tyraxes. And Septon Eustace tells us that His Grace sat Jace upon his knee atop the Iron Throne as he was holding court, and was heard to say, ‘One day this will be your seat, lad.’” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Toothless (How to Train Your Dragon)

Vermax is young, and Jacaerys has likely been riding him for no longer than a few years by the end of Season 1 of House of the Dragon. We last see Jace taking his dragon to the Eyrie, to treat with Lady Jeyne Arryn and earn the support of the Vale. After that, his plan is to do the same with Cregan Stark and the North.

Vermax is capable of combat, but he’s too young to be truly fearsome. Plus, Jacaerys is Rhaenyra’s heir—so right now he and his dragon are deployed only as messengers.

Moondancer

Age: Likely a teen
Battle experience: None
Current rider: Baela Targaryen (not yet mounted)
Past riders: None
Current whereabouts: Dragonstone

From the books: “Moondancer was a young dragon, pale green, with horns and crest and wingbones of pearl. Aside from her great wings, she was no larger than a warhorse, and weighed less.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Yoshi (Super Mario)

In Fire & Blood, Moondancer is just too small for 13-year-old Baela Targaryen to mount at the start of the Dance. However, the show has aged Baela up a bit—she’s 16. That means Moondancer should be rideable or will be soon.

Tyraxes

Age: Roughly 6, no older than Joffrey Velaryon
Battle experience: None
Current rider: Joffrey Velaryon
Past riders: None
Current whereabouts: Dragonstone

From the books: “Rhaenyra’s three sons by Laenor Velaryon were all dragonriders; Vermax, Arrax, and Tyraxes were thriving, and growing larger every year.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating: Not yet of fighting size
Pro comparison: Zog (Zog)

Tyraxes should be just old enough to ride at the end of Season 1 if the show is consistent with Fire & Blood. In the book, Joffrey wants to be sent out as a messenger along with Jacaerys and Lucerys to help consolidate support for the blacks. But Rhaenyra refuses, reasoning that Joffrey is too young to go. His dragon is also one of the youngest in the realm. This is essentially the minimum level of strength you can have in a dragon that technically can fly a human and fight in combat.

However, in the show timeline, Joffrey is just 6, so his dragon should be far from fighting size.

Stormcloud

Age: Roughly 4
Battle experience: None
Current rider: Aegon the Younger Targaryen
Past riders: None
Current whereabouts: Dragonstone

From the books: I can’t quote a single passage without a spoiler—just trust me!

Estimated Battle Strength Rating: Not yet of fighting size
Pro comparison: Mushu (Mulan)

Stormcloud is even smaller than Tyraxes and Moondancer, having been born from an egg that was placed in Aegon the Younger’s cradle. With Aegon roughly 4 years old in the show’s timeline (he’s 9 in the books), he and Stormcloud are years away from taking to the skies, much less being a factor in combat.

The Greens

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Vhagar

Age: Over 180
Battle experience: Extensive
Current rider: Aemond Targaryen
Past riders: Visenya Targaryen, Baelon Targaryen, Laena Velaryon
Current whereabouts: King’s Landing

From the books: “‘It was said that Vhagar’s breath was so hot that it could melt a knight’s armor and cook the man inside.’” —Daenerys Targaryen, A Clash of Kings

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Flying Godzilla (Godzilla)

You remember Vhagar, the gigantic, enormous, like ridiculously large dragon that was last seen devouring Lucerys Velaryon and his dragon, Arrax, thus plunging the realm into civil war. Vhagar is the last living creature to have been present for Aegon’s Conquest of Westeros some 130 years prior to the events of House of the Dragon, and she saw action in not just that war, but in many other conflicts since.

Vhagar is the complicating factor in the brewing war. The blacks may have the dragon advantage in pure numbers, but the true balance of power rests on how many dragons Vhagar is worth on her own. Could Vhagar match two of the blacks’ dragons at once? Three?

The answer there is unclear. In the books, one character reasons that Vermax, Syrax, and Caraxes could take down “that hoary old bitch,” but another character disagrees. At this point, Westeros has never seen large-scale dragon-on-dragon warfare, so how much Vhagar’s size, experience, and ferocity matter in relation to the realm’s other dragons has yet to be put to the test. All we can be sure of now is that Vhagar is definitely the most intimidating force in all of Westeros.

Sunfyre

Age: “Young”—likely close in age to Aegon II, who is in his 20s
Battle experience: None
Current rider: Aegon II Targaryen
Past riders: None
Current whereabouts: King’s Landing

From the books: “Aegon’s young Sunfyre was said to be the most beautiful dragon ever seen upon the earth.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Teenage Smaug (The Hobbit)

The sadistic little shit who now sits on the Iron Throne happens to ride the most majestic creature ever seen. Isn’t it funny how George R.R. Martin’s mind works? In the books, Aegon II circles King’s Landing on Sunfyre—his dazzling dragon with shining, golden scales and pale, pink wings—before his coronation, and the sight of the glittering creature surely helped provide some legitimacy to his claim. This is a dragon fit for a king.

While Sunfyre’s appearance leaves audiences in awe, his combat effectiveness is, like most dragons in Westeros, untested. But Sunfyre is young, healthy, and described at times in the books as being “heavy” (in a good way). It’s safe to say he’s pretty formidable—maybe even the second-strongest dragon the Greens have, depending on how we feel about Dreamfyre (more on her in a second).

Dreamfyre

Age: Roughly 100
Battle experience: None
Current rider: Helaena Targaryen
Past riders: Rhaena Targaryen
Current whereabouts: King’s Landing

From the books: “At the age of nine, however, Rhaena was presented with a hatchling from the pits of Dragonstone, and she and the young dragon she named Dreamfyre bonded instantly. With her dragon beside her, the princess slowly began to grow out of her shyness; at the age of twelve she took to the skies for the first time, and thereafter, though she remained a quiet girl, no one dared to call her timid.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Dragon (Shrek)

Dreamfyre is nearly a century old, making her one of the older and, presumably, larger dragons in Westeros. She’s produced numerous clutches of eggs over the years, and it’s likely that the eggs Daenerys receives at the beginning of Game of Thrones—the ones that become Drogon, Rhaegal, and Viserion—are from Dreamfyre.

But at the time of House of the Dragon, it is Dreamfyre’s combat effectiveness, not her fertility, that is of most importance. And Dreamfyre is unproven in that area. Earlier in her life, she spent her days shuttling Rhaena Targaryen—one of Old King Jaehaerys’s sisters—around Westeros, exploring the Seven Kingdoms. Rhaena lived a very interesting, if tragic, life—but her story is for another time. She and Dreamfyre never saw combat.

Now, Helaena has mounted Dreamfyre … but Helaena is no warrior. Her prophetic dreams have made her awkward and eccentric. Remember toward the end of Season 1, when at a royal feast featuring a barely alive Viserys, she toasted her cousins, saying that marriage “isn’t so bad” because “he mostly just ignores you, except sometimes when he’s drunk”? We must protect our neurodivergent-coded queen! That probably means not sending her into combat. Helaena doesn’t even like flying, let alone fighting, and does so infrequently.

Dreamfyre’s size should make her one of the more intimidating dragons in Westeros, but a dragon’s combat effectiveness needs to be seen in tandem with the abilities of its rider. Helaena couldn’t be more misfit for combat, and given Dreamfyre’s own inexperience, it’s hard to see this dragon as a particularly large factor in the coming war.

Tessarion

Also known as: The Blue Queen
Age: Teenage
Battle experience: None
Current rider: Daeron Targaryen
Past riders: None
Current whereabouts: Oldtown

From the books: “Prince Daeron’s dragon was Tessarion, with her wings dark as cobalt and her claws and crest and belly scales as bright as beaten copper.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Spyro (Spyro the Dragon)

Alicent is hiding a child. Or at least House of the Dragon is. The queen didn’t have only two sons with Viserys; she had three—Daeron is the couple’s youngest child, aged 15. He has not been seen on-screen because he’s in Oldtown, serving as cupbearer to Ormund Hightower, his mother’s cousin. That means we have also not seen his dragon, Tessarion, who is young but of fighting size.

Daeron hasn’t been written out of the show. A spot for him appears in the opening credits, and both George R.R. Martin and Ryan Condal confirmed last season that they just couldn’t find time to include him. But rumor has it that he’s also been cut from Season 2, as there was never confirmation that his character was cast. Why wouldn’t the greens immediately call back one of their dragonriders as soon as dragon warfare appeared imminent? Beats me. If Daeron suddenly shows up in Season 3 after sitting out all of Season 2, there will be a lot of explaining to do.

Shrykos

Age: No older than 6
Battle experience: None
Current rider: Jaehaerys Targaryen
Past riders: None
Current whereabouts: King’s Landing

From the books: “In 123 AC, the fourteen-year-old princess gave birth to twins, a boy she named Jaehaerys and a girl called Jaehaera. Prince Aegon had heirs of his own now, the greens at court proclaimed happily. A dragon’s egg was placed in the cradle of each child, and two hatchlings soon came forth. Yet all was not well with these new twins. Jaehaera was tiny and slow to grow. She did not cry, she did not smile, she did none of the things a babe was meant to do. Her brother, whilst larger and more robust, was also less perfect than was expected of a Targaryen princeling, boasting six fingers on his left hand, and six toes upon each foot.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating: Not yet of fighting size
Pro comparison: Rango (Rango)

Shrykos is a 6-year-old dragon that belongs to a 6-year-old human—one of Helaena’s sons—who has six fingers on one hand and six toes on each foot. Unless the war stretches for at least five years or so, this dragon will be a nonfactor in combat.

Morghul

Age: No older than 6
Battle experience: None
Current rider: Jaehaera Targaryen
Past riders: None
Current whereabouts: King’s Landing

From the books: “Queen Helaena’s twins had their own dragons too, but no more than hatchlings; the usurper’s youngest son, Maelor, was possessed only of an egg.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating: Not yet of fighting size
Pro comparison: The Gecko (Geico)

Like Jaehaerys’s dragon, Shrykos, Morghul should be presumed to be no older than 6—and thus several years away from being capable of engaging in meaningful combat. What’s more, Jaehaera is described as “tiny and slow to grow.”

Previously Claimed but Currently Unmounted

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Seasmoke

Age: Roughly 30s
Battle experience: Burned some corsairs once
Current rider: None
Past riders: Laenor Velaryon
Current whereabouts: Driftmark

From the books: “Yet Seasmoke, Vermithor, and Silverwing were accustomed to men and tolerant of their presence. Having once been ridden, they were more accepting of new riders.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Ridley (Metroid)

Seasmoke’s shining moment of Season 1 came in Episode 3, when he set Craghas Crabfeeder’s mercenaries ablaze and helped end the War for the Stepstones. Since then, though, things have been peaceful for the dragon. His rider, Laenor, faked his death (raising all kinds of questions about how the bond between dragon and rider works), leaving Seasmoke a free agent. Since that incident, Seasmoke has been chilling on Driftmark, the island controlled by House Velaryon.

Seasmoke’s combat experience, however limited, is precious for anyone able to tame him. Most of the realm’s dragons are as green as summer grass—Seasmoke has at least burned some pirates in his day. That could give him the edge in battle.

Vermithor

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Also known as: The Bronze Fury
Age: Nearly 100
Battle experience: Fought in two small-scale battles
Current rider: None
Past riders: Jaehaerys I Targaryen
Current whereabouts: The Dragonmont

From the books: “King Jaehaerys descended the Iron Throne and bade Lord Rogar follow him. He led his lordship from the hall to the inner ward where Vermithor was being fed. A bull had been slaughtered for his morning meal and lay upon the stones charred and smoking, for dragons always burn their meat before consuming it. Vermithor was feasting on the flesh, tearing loose great chunks of meat with each bite, but when the king approached with Lord Rogar, the dragon raised his head and gazed at them with eyes like pools of molten bronze. ‘He grows larger every day,’ Jaehaerys said as he scratched the great wyrm under his jaw. ‘Keep your nieces and your nephews, my lord. Why would I need hostages? I have your word, that is all that I require.’ But Grand Maester Benifer heard the words he did not speak. ‘Every man and maid and child in the stormlands is my hostage, whilst I ride him, His Grace said without saying.’ wrote Benifer, ‘and Lord Rogar heard him plain.’” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Paarthurnax (The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim)

Vermithor was the mount of King Jaehaerys—the Old King whom Viserys I succeeded at the beginning of the show. He’s been without a rider since Jaehaerys’s death some 30 years before the events of Season 2, but now he takes on major importance. Vermithor is not only one of the older and larger dragons in the realm—probably only Vhagar is larger—but he also has battle experience.

Jaehaerys’s 55-year reign over Westeros was almost entirely peaceful. In that stretch, Jaehaerys facilitated the building of Westerosi roads, the modernization of the realm’s laws, and the consolidation of Targaryen power. But no one goes five decades as king without some conflict, and Vermithor saw action in the Third and Fourth Dornish Wars, burning Dornish ships to put down rebellion in one of the only regions of Westeros that had escaped assimilation into the Seven Kingdoms. Setting timber and sails ablaze is hardly the same as going wing-to-wing with another dragon, but it’s at least something.

We caught a glimpse of Vermithor at the end of Season 1—he’s the dragon Daemon sings to:

No person has ever ridden two dragons, however, so Daemon won’t be riding Vermithor anytime soon. For him to be of use in the coming war, the blacks will need to find Vermithor a new rider.

Silverwing

Age: Nearly 100
Battle experience: None
Current rider: None
Past riders: Alysanne Targaryen
Current whereabouts: The Dragonmont

From the books: “The unexpected arrival of Vermithor and Silverwing at Oldtown brought thousands to the streets to point and stare. No word of their coming had been sent ahead, and there were many in the city who were frightened, wondering what this might portend … none, mayhaps, more than Septon Mattheus, who turned pale when he was told. Jaehaerys brought down Vermithor on the wide marble plaza outside the Starry Sept, but it was his queen who made the city gasp when Silverwing alighted atop the Hightower itself, the beating of her wings fanning the flames of its famous beacon.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Light Fury (How to Train Your Dragon)

Silverwing was long ridden by Queen Alysanne Targaryen, the sister-wife of King Jaehaerys. The couple often flew together, doing many tours of Westeros over their long reign. But unlike Vermithor, Silverwing never saw combat. In fact, Fire & Blood says that Silverwing was “judged to be the most docile of the masterless dragons.”

Still, Silverwing’s age—and thus presumed size—makes her a formidable foe. A fierce rider could make her a significant force.

Completely Wild

Sheepstealer

Age: Roughly 50-80
Battle experience: Unknown
Current rider: None
Past riders: None
Current whereabouts: The Dragonmont

From the books: “Sheepstealer, a notably ugly ‘mud brown’ dragon hatched when the Old King was still young, had a taste for mutton, swooping down on shepherd’s flocks from Driftmark to the Wendwater. He seldom harmed the shepherds, unless they attempted to interfere with him, but had been known to devour the occasional sheep dog.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Prepubescent Drogon (Game of Thrones)

Sheepstealer may seem surprisingly docile for an untamed dragon, given the way Fire & Blood details how the dragon dines only on sheep, never shepherds. But don’t let his picky palate fool you. F&B also calls Sheepstealer “vicious” and “ill-tempered.” And since he’s on the somewhat older side for dragons in the realm at this time, he’s likely of a formidable size as well.

Grey Ghost

Age: Unknown
Experience: Unknown
Current rider: None
Past riders: None
Current whereabouts: The Dragonmont

From the books: “Grey Ghost dwelt in a smoking vent high on the eastern side of the Dragonmont, preferred fish, and was most oft glimpsed flying low over the narrow sea, snatching prey from the waters. A pale grey-white beast, the color of morning mist, he was a notably shy dragon who avoided men and their works for years at a time.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Randall Boggs (Monsters, Inc.)

Grey Ghost is so shy that little is known about him. Sometimes he is spotted dining on fish … but that’s about all we can say. For Grey Ghost to be of any use in the war, someone would have to first find the dragon.

The Cannibal

Age: Unknown
Battle experience: Known to kill and eat other dragons
Current rider: None
Past riders: None
Current whereabouts: The Dragonmont

From the books: “The largest and oldest of the wild dragons was the Cannibal, so named because he had been known to feed on the carcasses of dead dragons, and descend upon the hatcheries of Dragonstone to gorge himself on newborn hatchlings and eggs. … Would-be dragontamers had made attempts to ride him a dozen times; his lair was littered with their bones.” —Fire & Blood

Estimated Battle Strength Rating:

Pro comparison: Trogdor (Homestar Runner)

For as bad-tempered as Vhagar and Caraxes are said to be, the Cannibal is—well, you can probably guess based on his name. He’s the largest of the three wild dragons and as black as the famed, late Balerion, with shining green eyes and a vicious attitude. There are rumors that the Cannibal has resided on Dragonstone since even before the Targaryens arrived, which would make him by far the oldest dragon in Westeros. And his favorite dinner entree: dragons.

The Cannibal is the only living dragon other than Vhagar that we know for sure has killed other dragons—and that combination of experience, size, and temperament could make him a massive asset in the Dance. But if even other dragons can’t stand up to the Cannibal, taming him could be impossible.

The Final Breakdown

So how does this all shake out? The blacks have the advantage when it comes to the number of rideable dragons, with five to the greens’ four. And if Moondancer grows just a bit, that advantage will increase to six to the greens’ four. But, of course, the greens have Vhagar. How many dragons would it take to best Vhagar in battle? Would a fierce, powerful dragon such as Caraxes be enough with a smaller but still combat-worthy dragon such as Tyraxes in support? Or would it take two of the blacks’ larger dragons—say, Caraxes and Meleys? Maybe even three?

No one knows. Vhagar’s size, experience, and ferocity are so unmatched that any calculation of dragon power is a difficult task.

Still, as far as the tamed dragons in hand go, I’d give the blacks the edge. Consider the limitations of the greens’ non-Vhagar dragons: Sunfyre is ridden by King Aegon II and thus must be deployed only when safe to do so—all it takes is one stray arrow or mistimed aerial maneuver, and the greens’ entire claim to the throne could be snuffed out. Dreamfyre is ridden by Helaena, who is as far from a warrior as anyone in Westeros. Daeron and Tessarion are MIA, for some reason. Shrykos and Morghul are not close to being mature enough to ride.

In Rhaenyra’s Syrax, the blacks have the same concern in deploying their monarch as the greens do with Sunfyre, but that’s about it. Caraxes and Meleys are fierce and ridden by capable warriors. Vermax and Tyraxes are solid assets of fighting size. Moondancer could soon add to the blacks’ numbers.

But what of those dragons in the bush, the unclaimed and wild dragons without riders? They could be the key to the whole conflict, as they present enough power to completely shift the war. These are all fully adult dragons, and some appear to be quite ferocious. And all six such dragons reside in territories the blacks control.

The problem, as Rhaenyra notes during her war council in the Season 1 finale, is that the blacks aren’t exactly flush with dragonrider candidates … or are they?

The first candidate the blacks could look for in a search for new dragonriders could be Rhaena Targaryen. The teenage daughter of Daemon and Laena is old enough to be a rider, but the egg given to her as an infant never hatched. She wanted to claim Vhagar after her mother’s death, but Aemond beat her to it. Still, her Valyrian blood should make her an easy match for one of the dragons on Dragonstone. Or, if she goes to Driftmark, she could attempt to claim Seasmoke, formerly her uncle Laenor’s dragon. The only question will be whether Daemon consents to having his young daughter fly out to war.

But Valyrian blood doesn’t just flow through official family trees. In the years since (and even before) Aegon’s Conquest, many Targaryens fathered bastards in the lands around Blackwater Bay. These unrecognized Targaryens—who can but do not always have silver hair—have the same vaunted “blood of the dragon” that the royal Targaryens so pride themselves in. Many in Westeros call them “dragonseeds.” Do actual dragons know the difference between a dragonseed and an official Targaryen? No dragonseed has ever ridden a dragon, but there’s never been a full-scale Targaryen civil war that might force them to. If dragonseeds can become dragonriders—and either side successfully recruits a healthy number of them—it would completely change the balance of power in Westeros.

Plus, dragonseeds solve the royalty deployment problem. Rhaenyra has already lost one son—does she want to risk losing another, or her husband? She wouldn’t have to take that kind of risk if she could just, respectfully, send some Targaryen bastard out to war.

With all this in mind, the blacks have the clear edge. At the war council, Daemon says that the blacks could “surround King’s Landing with the dragons, and we could have every green head mounted on spikes before the fucking moon turns.” It’s easy to see where he gets that thought. But the greens still have Vhagar—and nothing in Westeros ever comes that easy.